The Most Read Posts of First Half of 2018

The first half of 2018 comes to a close this week, so I wanted to share the five most popular articles from the first six months of the year:

1.  Price Is What You Pay; Value Is What You Get – Nifty Fifty Edition  Here is a discussion of the subsequent returns of the high-priced ‘Nifty Fifty’ growth stocks of the early 1970s, and how lofty valuations affected their intermediate- and long-term performance.

Related articles:

Professor Jeremy Siegel’s 1998 study of subsequent earnings growth for the Nifty Fifty:

The FT’s Jamie Powell cites my article on the Nifty Fifty, and offers his own analysis, as well as what similarly lofty valuations mean for today’s growth darlings:

2.  Capex Darlings and the Myth of Short-Termism  This article busts the myth that companies that return capital to shareholders – think dividends and buybacks – are cannibalizing their futures by doing so, while demonstrating that companies that do the opposite – invest heavily in things like capex – often underperform.

Related articles:

Alpha Architect’s Jack Vogel, PhD, on how “empire builders” – companies that are capital-intensive and spend heavily on investment – are often poor investments relative to shareholder-friendly ones:

3.  The Enduring Appeal of Tobacco Stocks  I make my case for why tobacco stocks will continue to be rewarding investments for the foreseeable future.

4.  Exploring the Low-Volatility Phenomenon:  An Interview with Pim van Pfliet, PhD  One of the foremost experts on low-volatility stocks discusses why these have proven to be winners over the long-term, and why he thinks that should continue to be the case.

Related reading:

Pim’s book, High Returns from Low Risk, which I highly recommend:

5.  Your Focus Should Be On Risk, Not Reward  Using the historical lessons from the naval battles of World War One, I argue that investors should contemplate adverse outcomes before making long-term investment decisions, and put potential rewards second behind possible risks.

Thanks for reading, and I hope you have a wonderful rest of 2018.